My 2009 NFL Season Predictions

With the kickoff of the 2009 NFL season last night, we got a sneak peek at whats in store this season for two of last years AFC playoff teams. I will go division by division, giving an analysis of each team, trying once again to do the impossible, predict what the 2009 NFL season has in store for us.

AFC East
New England Patriots 13-3
Miami Dolphins 9-7
Buffalo Bills 7-9
New York Jets 6-10

No surprise here. Tom Brady returns and the Pats finish on top of what is at best a mediocre division. Bill Belichick and the Pats look poised for another deep postseason run. The loss of Richard Seymour will hurt, but the Pats won't have to worry about holding teams scoreless with the offensive fireworks they have.

The Dolphins have an aging defense and teams aren't going to be caught off-guard by the wildcat offense anymore as defenses have had a whole off-season to study it. Chad Pennington is someone I have always liked, and Tony Sparano had a very solid first year. For some reason I see this team taking a bit of a dip and returning back to earth following their incredible 2008 campaign.

The addition of T.O. to the Bills will not do much. A shaky offensive line with a young quarterback are not always the best ingredients for scoring points. The Bills also have at best an average defense. A weakened secondary due to the loss of Jabari Greer to the Saints and outside of Marcus Stroud, the Bills are shaky on the defensive line as well. Dick Jauron is definitely on the hot seat this year, and this might be the year he gets the boot from long time owner Ralph Wilson.

The Jets have a first year head coach in Rex Ryan as well as a rookie QB. The combination is not always the best (but if Mike Smith and Matt Ryan made it work last year, who knows). Mark Sanchez will eventually be a very good QB, however it won't be this year. I think the Jets are a year away from being a playoff contender when Rex can truly get his defensive scheme going and Sanchez becomes more comfortable.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Cincinatti Bengals 5-11
Cleveland Browns 4-12

Pittsburgh proved in their season opener that they are once again a defensive powerhouse and will create match up problems for any team that faces them. Troy Polamalu being injured may be just another case of the Madden curse, but either way the loss hurts. He is expected to return in 3-6 weeks, but the Steelers run a great system on defense led by genius Dick Lebeau. They will be ok on defense. The Steelers are also well disciplined team behind Mike Tomlin. Big Ben will once again work his magic and do just what he does; win games. He may not have the best stat line, but bottom line is that Ben has 51 wins in his first five seasons, more than any QB in NFL history. Don't expect that trend to end.

Baltimore will finish in a close second, however the loss of defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to the Jets will hurt. No worries though, as the defense will be led by Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed and the gang. I believe QB Joe Flacco will avoid having a sophomore slump as he has a strong running game behind Leron McClain, Willis McGahee and Ray Rice. He also has Derrick Mason and Todd Heap to throw too, and while the Ravens aren't known for their offensive fireworks, they get very solid offensive production.

The Bengals get back a healthy Carson Palmer, but the loss of T.J. Houshmanzadeh will hurt. Chad Ochocinco looks to rebound from a sub par 2008 season, and I believe he can. Chris Henry will be a solid replacement as a number two reciever in place of Houshmanzadeh.The Bengals will have to live and die by the pass, as the running game is less than stellar. Rookie linbacker Rey Maualuga will make an impact on defense, but first round draft pick Andre Johnson will be affected by the time he missed in training camp and the pre-season. Marvin Lewis is also on the hot seat this year, and he may be in trouble.

As for Cleveland, where do I begin. Rookie head coach Eric Mangini will be in for a long year. The QB battle between Anderson and Quinn is one that has gone on for long enough. I believe Quinn should be the starter as the Browns need to begin building for the future. Quinn has a chance to be a solid NFL starter, but not with the offensive tiiks he has this year. Braylon Edwards dropped way too many passes last year, sixteen to be exact. That combined with the loss of Kellen Winslow Jr. will not help whichever QB starts. The Browns also have a porous defense. Expect a top five draft pick.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts 11-5
Tennessee Titans 10-6
Houston Texans 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11

Even with the loss of Coach Tony Dungy, don't expect too much of a drop off for Indy. The colts are still led by future hall of famer Peyton Manning. Reggie Wayne will be his number one target this year, and Anthony Gonzalez will transition nicely into the role of a number two reciever. Dallas Clark will also be a viable threat for Manning as he is one of the top Tight Ends in the league. On defense, the Colts have never been dominant. They never needed to be as they were used to putting up 30+ points a game. This year the defense is going to have to step up in order to help Manning win some games. Bob Sanders is one of the premier defensive players in the NFL, yet he is injury prone. If he cannot play in many games, the Colts may struggle a bit this year on defense. Even with that being said, Peyton is an offensive mastermind and will guide this team to the playoffs.

Tennessee proved in the season opener the same thing Pittsburgh did; they can play defense, and play it well. Veteran QB Kerry Collins proved he can still lead an offense down the field, as he passed for nearly 250 yards in the season opener against the Steelers. Chris Johnson is one of the most electrifying backs in the league, and Kenny Britt and Justin Gage proved they can be reliable recievers.

Houston is a sleeper pick by everyone to make the playoffs this year, however they play in perhaps the toughsest division in the NFL. Matt Schaub could become the QB that the Texans envisioned when they traded for him. Andre Johnson is an athletic freak who shouldn't have a problem racking up 80+ catches and 10+ touchdowns. I'm still not convinced the defense is stable enough to be able to hold opposing offenses in tight games. Mario Williams is also a freak of nature. Demeco Ryans is a tackle machine and should have an impressive year also, but the defense as a whole hasn't impressed me in the last few seasons.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers 11-5
Oakland Raiders 6-10
Denver Broncos 5-11
Kansas City Chiefs 4-12

San Diego will run away with the title of AFC West Champion, although it doesn't mean much. Winning the weakest divison in the NFL is nothing to brag about. QB Philip Rivers has made the leap in to the top 10 QBs in the NFL. Darren Sproles is a playmaker on offense, and Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates are nice targets for Rivers to throw to. However the question remains, can LT bounce back from a "down" year? (Although he still rushed for over 1,000 yards. I think L.T. proves once again he is still the machine he was two years ago, just a little older and maybe not as quick as he once was, yet still very productive. The defense will be very solid behind Merriman. He won't let them slip. Perhaps all the talent on this team will actually account for something in the postseason.

Oakland will do something this year they haven't done since their superbowl season in 2002, win more than five games. Jamarcus Russel showed at the end of last season that he can be a solid starter, and I expect that success to continue. Rookie reciever Heyward Bey was one of the fastest players in the draft, however had issues with actually catching the ball. McFadden should have a breakout year following being injured last year, as he is too good to get stuffed for a loss, even behind a weak offensive live. The defense has been the worst at stopping the run since 2003, but if newly acquired Richard Seymour decided to show up, he will help the defensive line a ton.

After losing their head coach, starting QB, and now rumors of the Broncos trading their star receiver Brandon Marshall, its safe to say the Broncos had one hell of an off-season, but not in a positive way. Orton will struggle as he did in the pre-season, and it especially doesn't help is Marshall continues to be a head case. Moreno from Georgia should have success on the ground, as I like how he fits. Still the defense will struggle as Champ Bailey can't do it all. Expect a top 7 draft pick.

The acquisition on Matt Cassel and head coach Todd Haley should have the Chiefs scoring points at a quick pace, but not this year. The running game is unreliable as Larry Johnson doesn't want to be in KC. Dwayne Bowe is the only real offensive threat after losing Tony Gonzalez. The defense is young, but in time they can improve and eventually become solid. For now though, the Chiefs will be back at the bottom of the barrel.